Bangladesh is advancing to become the 25th largest economy in the world by 2035 from the 41st place this year, says a recent report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
The country will be the 34th largest economy in the world by 2025 continuing to be the 2nd in South Asia.
According to the CEBR, the size of the economy will nearly treble to $855 billion in 2035 from $301 billion in 2020 in US dollar constant prices.
The report says, Bangladesh had a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,139 in 2020, making it a lower middle-income country.
The economy of Bangladesh enjoyed a strong rate of GDP growth in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite a modest rate of population growth, which averaged just 1.0% per year over the past five years, the report added.
The rate of GDP growth in Bangladesh is anticipated to have dipped to 3.8% in 2020. This compares to 8.2% GDP growth recorded in 2019.
Between 2021 and 2025, CEBR forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 6.8%. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to decline to an average of 6.5% per year.
China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, the report said.
Despite the pandemic and a deep recession, within the next decade, Bangladesh will achieve the 28th position by overcoming Malaysia, Israel and even the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
The previous report of CEBR showed Bangladesh will overtake heavyweights such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Denmark and Norway. This forecast for 2030 is also the same in this recent report.
Neighboring India will become the 5th largest economy in 2025, the 3rd largest by 2030. While China, currently the second-largest economy, will overtake the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2030. That will be due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the pandemic, the think tank says.
Japan would remain the world’s 3rd biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.
The report also mentioned that government debt of Bangladesh as a share of GDP rose to 39.6% in 2020 which remains a low level. Looking back, public sector debt stood at 35.8% of GDP in 2019.
Between 2020 and 2035, CEBR forecasts that the position of Bangladesh in the World Economic League Table will improve considerably, with its ranking rising from 41st to 25th by 2035.
The UK-based think tank, the CEBR, published The World Economic League Table 2021 on 26 December, with forecasts for 193 countries to 2035.